It took a few days of number crunching but the results are finally in. There’s a new club in the top ten as Chile replaces the United States after the U.S. fell to Mexico in the final of the Gold Cup. Spreading out a little bit, Nigeria enters the Top 25, replacing Croatia, largely on the strength of its 4-1 victory over Argentina in an early-June friendly.
Within the Top 100, there were a number of big movers. The biggest forward movers were Burkina Faso (+19), Trinidad & Tobago (+12), Jamaica (+11), Ecuador (+11) and Malaysia (+10). The upward movement of the CONCACAF teams demonstrates how important “strength of schedule” is in the rankings. The biggest downward movers of the month included Gabon (-11), Romania (-9), Cape Verde Islands (-9), Uganda (-8) and Greece (-8).
Before we get to the Top 100, let’s look behind the numbers a little bit. In determining the WCR International RPI Rankings, we look at three pieces of information: Winning Percentage, Opponent’s Winning Percentage and Opponent’s Opponent’s Winning Percentage. Looking at who’s topping those rankings provides some explanation for the current rankings.
Winning Percentage (25%): This category provides the biggest area of differential in the rankings because while there are clubs with better than a 70% winning percentage or lower than 30%, there are no clubs with strength of schedule numbers either that high or low. Because of this, the clubs at the top of the list tend to dominate the final rankings. In fact, all of the clubs in the top six of the Top 100 and seven of the top eight also appear on this list.
Top Winning Percentage (July 2007-June 2011)
1. Spain (.90984)
2. Brazil (.81250)
3. Netherlands (.79091)
4. Croatia (.76190)
5. Germany (.75439)
6. England (.71591)
7. Egypt (.71311)
8. Uganda (.70652)
9. Argentina (.69828)
10 (tie). South Korea (.67692)
10 (tie). Iran (.67692)
Opponent’s Winning Percentage (50%): This is the category that separates the men from the boys, or the Argentinas from the Croatias. Of course, if Paraguay played all of its matches against clubs from Oceania, it would have a much better record. That better record wouldn’t necessarily, however, make it a much better team. Both this factor and the following factor are included to take into account the strength of schedule, which is vital in determining what a team’s record actually signifies.
Top Opponent’s Winning Percentage (July 2007-June 2011)
1. United States (.60408)
2. Argentina (.59293)
3. New Zealand (.58713)
4. South Korea (.58596)
5. Brazil (.58444)
6. Chile (.58382)
7. Australia (.58211)
8. Uruguay (.58089)
9. England (.57651)
10. Paraguay (.57158)
Opponent’s Opponent’s Winning Percentage (25%): This is, perhaps, the most interesting category, at least to me. Among the qualifying national teams (those that played at least 20 matches in the relevant time frame), there is only a fifteen percentage-point difference between the highest ranked team (Brazil) and the lowest ranked team (Philippines). The South American clubs performed well in the second category, but they absolutely dominate this category. In fact, the only COMNEBOL team that doesn’t rank in the top nine in this category is Venezuela. It ranked 12th. This makes sense because COMNEBOL doesn’t have any San Marino’s or Andorra’s to drag down the strength of schedule percentages.
Top Opponent’s Opponent’s Winning Percentage (July 2007-June 2011)
1. Brazil (.55384)
2. Colombia (.55369)
3. Paraguay (.55304)
4. Bolivia (.54785)
5. Peru (.54718)
6. Ecuador (.54681)
7. Argentina (.54617)
8. Uruguay (.54557)
9. Chile (.54385)
10. Japan (.54065)
Add all of the numbers together and we get to the official WCR International RPI Rankings for June 2011. The numbers below are current rank, (last month’s rank), (four-year record (W-L-D)), and RPI number. Just a little exercise for whatever it’s worth. Enjoy.
World Club Rankings – Monthly International RPI Rankings – July 1, 2011
1. Spain (1) (54-4-3) .63913
2. Brazil (2) (41-6-9) .63381
3. Netherlands (3) (39-7-9) .61173
4. Argentina (4) (36-13-9) .60758
5. England (5) (28-9-7) .59704
6. South Korea (6) (35-12-18) .59521
7. Australia (8) (28-12-14) .58811
8. Germany (9) (38-9-10) .58720
9. Japan (7) (40-15-17) .58591
10. Chile (11) (29-17-11) .57919
11. Uruguay (14) (23-14-13) .57434
12. United States (10) (32-24-11) .57419
13. Cote d’Ivoire (12) (26-10-14) .57360
14. Mexico (15) (43-18-14) .57011
15. Italy (13) (25-11-16) .56901
16. Iran (16) (35-12-18) .56702
17. France (17) (25-13-14) .56369
18. Egypt (19) (38-12-11) .56236
19. Paraguay (18) (23-19-16) .55767
20. Portugal (21) (25-9-14) .55569
21. Ukraine (22) (21-10-11) .55458
22. Ghana (20) (28-18-11) .55430
23. Sweden (24) (26-15-8) .55312
24. Nigeria (28) (25-10-13) .55279
25. Saudi Arabia (23) (35-18-18) .55237
26. Norway (26) (18-11-8) .55090
27. Croatia (25) (28-6-8) .55055
28. China (31) (29-14-19) .54974
29. Turkey (27) (23-13-10) .54731
30. Denmark (30) (20-14-12) .54686
31. Senegal (34) (15-8-10) .54643
32. Jamaica (43) (27-11-12) .54563
33. Republic of Ireland (38) (17-10-15) .54472
34. South Africa (36) (29-21-15) .54464
35. Oman (32) (30-19-20) .54190
36. Colombia (33) (17-17-11) .54086
37. Greece (29) (23-12-12) .53974
38. Bahrain (42) (32-27-15) .53801
39. Switzerland (37) (17-14-12) .53721
40. Russia (40) (22-12-7) .53705
41. Honduras (35) (36-24-10) .53705
42. New Zealand (39) (8-12-8) .53399
43. Iraq (44) (23-19-15) .53233
44. Algeria (50) (16-14-8) .53141
45. Venezuela (51) (21-19-17) .53082
46. Ecuador (57) (14-18-13) .53011
47. Costa Rica (49) (23-19-19) .52966
48. Syria (52) (29-20-13) .52930
49. Cameroon (45) (20-14-10) .52899
50. Kuwait (46) (23-18-22) .52879
51. Serbia (47) (22-15-11) .52821
52. Gabon (41) (13-10-7) .52600
53. Montenegro (55) (13-7-10) .52562
54. Qatar (53) (23-27-22) .52360
55. North Korea (60) (26-23-22) .52101
56. Burkina Faso (75) (14-9-4) .52036
57. Romania (48) (18-17-8) .52009
58. Thailand (59) (22-15-13) .51856
59. Trinidad & Tobago (71) (25-17-13) .51769
60. Bulgaria (54) (14-11-10) .51700
61. Panama (61) (23-15-8) .51692
62. Tunisia (65) (18-11-16) .51686
63. Poland (69) (20-18-18) .51682
64. Libya (56) (13-6-8) .51498
65. Uganda (58) (28-9-9) .51444
66. Israel (70) (15-11-7) .51382
67. Scotland (64) (12-15-4) .51354
68. Morocco (62) (17-8-9) .51330
69. Guinea (67) (14-13-8) .51257
70. Bosnia-Herzegovina (63) (14-19-6) .51070
71. Uzbekistan (68) (19-23-11) .50955
72. Jordan (79) (16-20-15) .50672
73. Mali (66) (17-16-7) .50587
74. Peru (81) (10-18-11) .50576
75. United Arab Emirates (74) (17-27-18) .50515
76. Hungary (72) (18-17-5) .50510
77. Czech Republic (82) (19-12-11) .50477
78. Austria (76) (11-22-8) .50391
79. Belgium (83) (14-15-8) .50281
80. Slovenia (84) (18-15-7) .49907
81. Indonesia (80) (17-15-4) .49770
82. Cape Verde Islands (73) (12-6-5) .49736
83. Canada (77) (8-15-10) .49633
84. Benin (78) (11-17-6) .49539
85. Belarus (86) (16-15-12) .49441
86. Zambia (88) (26-23-10) .49217
87. Angola (90) (12-19-17) .48748
88. Yemen (91) (11-19-7) .48623
89. Finland (87) (12-17-11) .48512
90. Mozambique (85) (15-19-6) .48417
91. Cuba (89) (12-13-6) .48148
92. Singapore (100) (15-21-9) .48130
93. FYR Macedonia (93) (10-15-11) .48084
94. Wales (97) (15-20-2) .48077
95. India (95) (20-16-5) .48048
96. Turkmenistan (101) (13-13-5) .47957
97. Congo DR (102) (11-12-6) .47955
98. El Salvador (107) (20-31-15) .47823
99. Bolivia (103) (7-20-7) .47687
100. Malaysia (110) (13-15-10) .47583
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