This past week, the WCR Top 25 was picked up by several sources in Utah, as well as a few other locations, in celebration of Real Salt Lake becoming the first American club ever to reach the rankings. (One result of this was that I received about four times as many hits on Friday as I had on any previous day in the history of this site.) The ranking is legitimate and well-deserved. The fact that Real Salt Lake is ranked appeared to cause quite a bit of excitement within the Mountain West region of the United States. Now, let me tell you why you shouldn’t get but so excited.
I haven’t crunched the numbers yet for this week, I’ll wait until the end of the Western Hemisphere action on Sunday evening before doing that, but it’s likely that Real Salt Lake will go down in the rankings this week despite its impressive 2-2 draw against Monterrey in the first leg of the CONCACAF Champions League final. Why? Two things play into this: First, two-leg matchups aren’t factored into the formulae until after the second match. Nothing can be determined by the first match alone, so both matches are factored into the rankings at the same time. Thus, it’ll be another week before Real Salt Lake’s performance on Wednesday night will be recognized. Second, league rankings are adjusted at the end of each round of each continental championship tournament and the MLS actually dropped slightly this week because of Paraguay’s ability to place two clubs in the knockout round of the Copa Libertadores. If Real Salt Lake is successful against Monterrey this week, the MLS may move back up, but for this week at least, the road got a little tougher for RSL with respect to the rankings.
Next reason to not get excited is this – no matter what happens this week, Real Salt Lake’s tenure in the rankings is, most likely, short-lived. The reason for this is that RSL is in the WCR Top 25, in large part, because of its hot start in the MLS, in which it currently holds a +1.75 goal differential. That statistic, however, is based on four matches and cannot be maintained, not in the MLS. Large goal differentials play a significant part in the ranking formula. It is very common in top European leagues for two or three clubs to dominate and have large goal differentials throughout the season. The MLS, on the other hand, prides itself on parity with its semblance of a “salary cap” and its draft system. Because of this, you rarely (never?) see MLS clubs with huge goal differentials, either positive or negative. It’s rare for any club in the MLS to be THAT much better than all of the others. As time goes by, RSL’s goal differential will become more normalized and as that happens, Real Salt Lake will slide down the rankings. Of course, there’s a possibility that it won’t happen, but if you know the MLS, you know that it will.
I hate to be the bearer of sad, or at least disappointing, news for those Real Salt Lake fans who became so excited this week at seeing Real Salt Lake in the rankings. Again, RSL’s spot in the ranking of the world’s best clubs is deserved; but, ultimately, my history with the numbers tells me it will be short-lived. I have to say, though, that I have been very impressed by the excitement that the rankings caused within the Real Salt Lake community and if it is any indication of the passion that the club’s fans have for their club and the sport, then I need to go to Salt Lake City and see a match with you folks. If it’s any consolation, Real Salt Lake is my new second-favorite club in the MLS. (Sorry, D.C. United will always have my heart.)
Thanks for visiting the site!!! I wish I had better news for you but I’m glad that the Real Salt Lake community saw its club become the first American club in the WCR Top 25, regardless of how short that tenure turns out to be. Good luck against Monterrey on Wednesday!!! I’ll be watching and rooting for you.
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